Office for a Democratic Belarus: where Belarus and Brussels meet.
Poland Nominates Bialiatski for Nobel Peace Prize
January 26, the Polish Sejm scheduled a presentation of an official statement on the nomination of the Belarusian human rights activist, Ales Bialiatski, for the Nobel Peace Prize. A statement was signed by representatives of 27 member countries of the Council of Europe beside the deputies of the Polish parliament. According to the head of the Polish delegation to PACE, Andrzej Halitskogo, Poland "owes" to Bialiatski and must pay tribute to him at least this way.
Gazprom plans to raise Europe-bound gas exports across Belarus by about 13 percent this year after gaining control of the country's pipeline and Ukraine's threats to cut purchases. Gazprom will increase shipments by 4 billion cubic meters this year, chief executive Alexei Miller told the Belarus energy minister, Gazprom announced Thursday. Transit shipments amounted to 31.3 bcm last year.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed to create the Eurasian police, similar to Europol police service, within the Common Economic Space (CES). It was announced by the Kazakh leader during his annual Address to the People of Kazakhstan at the joint session of Parliament. "I believe it’s time to follow the example of Interpol and create Europol – the Eurasian police, to strengthen the fight against transnational organized crime within the CES," said Nursultan Nazarbayev.
Victoria Azarenka reached her first Grand Slam final and staked a claim for the No. 1 ranking when she beat defending champion Kim Clijsters 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 in the Australian Open semifinals today. The third-seeded Azarenka recovered her composure twice in periods when a resurgent Clijsters seemed to have the upper hand, breaking the veteran Belgian’s serve three times in the third set to secure victory in only her second major semifinal. The 22-year-old Belarusian will play 2008 Australian Open champion Maria Sharapova in the Saturday night final. Sharapova beat Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, 6-2, 3-6, 6-4. The winner between Azarenka or Sharapova will take over the No. 1 ranking.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) predicts that Belarus' GDP growth will become much slower in the medium term. In particular, the GDP growth rate will decrease from 4.7 percent between 2011 and 2015 to 2.6 percent between 2016 and 2020 and to 2.3 percent between 2021 and 2025, the EDB says in a survey published on January 24.
The use of the death penalty makes it impossible for Belarus to have any status in the Council of Europe, Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland told reporters in Strasbourg on January 25. Mr. Jagland called on the Belarusian authorities not to execute the two young men sentenced to death in the Minsk subway bombing case. It is not clear that Dzmitry Kanavalaw and Uladzislau Kavalyow are guilty of the terrorist attack, he said, adding that their execution would make remedial action impossible.
Last week Gunnar Wiegand from the European Commission announced that the EU was going to extend sanctions against Belarus. 135 more people may be added to the existing list of 208 Belarusian officials who are prohibited to visit the EU. Diplomatic sources also suggest that one or several Belarusian enterprises may be added to the ban list.
Europe wants to show that it cares about the situation in Belarus. Some even hope that Belarusians will soon revolt. But this 'tough love' approach is counterproductive. Despite the worst economic crisis in Belarus since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the number of those who are willing to protest diminishes. Ironically, the highest number of protesters in this century was in December 2010 when Belarusians were much richer than today and Europe pursued the policy of engagement.
The EU Council of Ministers may take its final decision on January 23. Instead of wasting their time and efforts on introducing yet another round of symbolic sanctions, the European Union should come up with fresh ideas how to empower and integrate the Belarusian society. The EU should invest into making its presence in Belarus more effective to get enough political and economic leverage to influence the situation there.
The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies is happy to present a new issue of Belarus’ Foreign Policy Index assessing the developments of September and October by five foreign political vectors. Our analysis prompts the general conclusion that, amid the isolation from the West, Belarus keeps drifting towards Russia, offering Moscow additional concessions and engaging in the Russia-initiated integration projects.
Not everyone was clapping and cheering on November 8 as Western European leaders and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev met in Lubmin, Germany, to mark the opening of the first part of the Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline. When completed late next year, the 1,224-kilometer, $10 billion pipeline will carry 55 billion cubic meters of Russian gas directly to Western markets each year. It will bypass transit countries like Ukraine and Belarus that rely on the revenues from transit fees and also benefit from the political leverage that comes from being part of Europe's energy equation.
The Nord Stream gas pipeline has been officially opened. But business is not the only motive behind the subsea project. Politicians want to decrease the EU's dependence on gas transit nations like Ukraine and Belarus. Leaders of Germany, France, the Netherlands, Russia and the European Union gathered on Tuesday to inaugurate the Nord Stream gas pipeline, a controversial 7.4-billion-euro ($10.2-billion) project that links Russia with western Europe beneath the Baltic Sea.
On October 3, 2011, Vladimir Putin made headlines by putting forward the idea of a Eurasian Union including several post-Soviet states. This was his first foreign policy initiative since the announcement of his candidacy for a third mandate, made at the United Russia Congress at the end of September this year (Gazeta.ru, September 24). Is this new Eurasian Union inspired by the Soviet Union or by the European Union? Is an official revival of Soviet nostalgia at issue, or a project of supranational integration following the models, cited by Putin, of the EU, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations?
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